1 Bitcoin = $919
Building a Civilization
Bitcoin makes money a force of nature. It is fixed in supply, its parameters are well understood. You can build a civilization on it. – Beautyon
Few People Do the Success-Case Math
Alistair Milne: True story: An investor I was pitching Bitcoin to in the $200’s wrote to me when it hit $320 saying ‘sorry, I feel like I missed the boat’
Dan McArdle: There’s a BCT thread from 2010 where a guy says he missed the boat cuz he “only” mined ~600BTC on his laptop before GPUs hit. People have felt that way – and been wrong – at every older of magnitude. I guess few ppl actually do the success-case math.
Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt
Jameson Lopp: Don’t tell anyone how many BTC you own unless you trust them w/your life. Merely mentioning owning BTC may make you a target in the future. Already seeing digital attacks against well-known bitcoin users. No physical attacks yet AFAIK.
Beautyon: This is just pure FUD. The rich have lived with people knowing they have money for thousands of years. LOL!
BitPay’s Bitcoin Transactions Reach an All-Time High
BitPay’s transaction volumes more than doubled in 2016, continuing an exponential trend as adoption increases all over the world. – Andrew Quentson
Bitcoin is Disrupting the Online Gambling Industry
Although not many people seemed to notice, Bitcoin was heavily integrated into various aspects of the online gambling industry in 2016.
Many online gambling juggernauts, such as 5dimes and Bodog, have implemented Bitcoin as a way to make deposits and withdrawals on their websites, but perhaps more importantly, the affiliate networks used by the online gambling industry are beginning to view Bitcoin as a requirement rather than an option.
Additionally, Bodog Founder Calvin Ayre has predicted that Bitcoin will continue to infiltrate the entire online gambling industry in 2017.
“Mark my words: Bitcoin is eventually going to eat the whole global online gambling industry and the first courses of this meal are already being digested,” wrote Ayre.
Hashrate is Exploding, Hits 3 Exahash for First Time Ever
Bitcoin Difficulty Getting Set To Jump Big Time!
Also, exahashes per second mining exceeding 3.0. – Jon Matonis
First Ever Snapshot of Coinmarketcap
Top 7 coins are now ranked 1, 4, 37, 55, 248, 427, 92. – Charlie Lee
PRIVACY / SECURITY / INTERNET
Dutch Tax Authority Wants Bitcoin Mixers Recognized as Money Laundering Indicators
At least three criminal cases pertaining to money laundering with bitcoin are scheduled for 2017.
Additionally, the FIOD — the investigative arm of the Dutch tax authority — wants to lower the bar for prosecution of unlicensed bitcoin traders. The FIOD will also try to have mixing services recognized as money-laundering operations.
Bitcoin’s relative anonymity (sometimes referred to as pseudonymity) and censorship resistance have made the digital currency a popular means of exchange on darknet markets like Alphabay and Silk Road.
Interpol believes that more than 40 percent of online transactions for illegal ends is done with bitcoin. – Aaron van Wirdum
Attacks on Bitcoin Privacy to Continue
These will be many attacks on Bitcoin. It can’t be stopped just as BitTorrent can’t be stopped. Both are good enough to change everything. – Beautyon
Thailand’s AIS in 5G Testing “World First”
AIS have announced that testing of technology in readiness for 5G has been a success.
Working with Huawei they are boasting of 5-8 times faster speeds in a “first in the world” usage of “Massive 4G MIMO 32T 32R” technology.
The company said it was the first in the world to achieve development of the 4G MIMO technology and brings AIS a step closer to rolling out its 5G service.
5G promises internet speeds almost 100 times faster than the current 4G technology. It will be so fast and so robust that users should never experience fluctuations in speed or connectivity. Users will no longer have to wait for things to download, you will just click on a file and it will be there almost instantly.
The head of Thailand’s broadcasting authority has expressed confidence that 5G technology will be in place in Thailand by 2020. – ThaiTech
COMPANIES / PROJECTS / PRODUCTS
SpaceX Successfully Lands Rocket After Crucial Satellite Launch
SpaceX now has 7 previously-flown first stage boosters in its inventory & will start reusing Falcon 9 first stages next month. – Lee Banfield
SpaceX Has Big Plans for Upcoming Mars Oppositions
Every 26 months, Earth laps Mars and they’re briefly next to each other (called a “Mars opposition”). That’s the one time when Earth-Mars transfers can happen.
Starting with the next one in July of 2018, SpaceX will start sending stuff to Mars each time there’s an opposition, and this will become increasingly big news each time.
Here’s the tentative schedule, if everything goes perfectly to plan:
July, 2018: Send a Dragon spacecraft (the Falcon 9’s SUV-size spacecraft) to Mars with cargo
October, 2020: Send multiple Dragons with more cargo
December, 2022: Maiden BFS (the Interplanetary Transport System) voyage to Mars. Carrying only cargo. This is the spaceship Elon wants to call Heart of Gold.
January, 2025: First people-carrying BFS voyage to Mars.
Let’s all go back and read that last line again.
January, 2025: First people-carrying BFS voyage to Mars.
Did you catch that?
If things go to plan, the Neil Armstrong of Mars will touch down about eight years from now.
And zero people are talking about it.
But they will be. The hype will start in 2018 when the Dragons make their Mars trips, and it’ll kick into high gear in 2022 when the BFS finally launches and heads to Mars and lands there. Everyone will be talking about this.
And the buzz will just accelerate from there as the first group of BFS astronauts are announced and become household names, admired for their bravery, because everyone will know there’s a reasonable chance something goes wrong and they don’t make it back alive.
Then, in 2024 they’ll take off on a three-month trip that’ll be front-page news every day.
When they land, everyone on Earth will be watching. It’ll be 1969 all over again. – Tim Urban
Building a Bitcoin Economy in Bali
Bali is a hotspot for vibrant bitcoin activity. Eat Pay Love. Well worth visiting. – Willy Woo
The House of Nakamoto, Vienna
Found this on my stroll on the busiest shopping street in Vienna (Mariahilfer Straße). – Peter Surda
Go World Champ Crushed by AI: “Not a Single Human Has Touched the Edge of the Truth of Go.”
A mysterious character named “Master” has swept through China, defeating many of the world’s top players in the ancient strategy game of Go.
Master played with inhuman speed, barely pausing to think. With a wide-eyed cartoon fox as an avatar, Master made moves that seemed foolish but inevitably led to victory this week over the world’s reigning Go champion, Ke Jie of China.
Master later revealed itself as an updated version of AlphaGo, an artificial-intelligence program designed by the DeepMind unit of Alphabet Inc.’s Google.
It was dramatic theater, and the latest sign that artificial intelligence is peerless in solving complex but defined problems. AI scientists predict computers will increasingly be able to search through thickets of alternatives to find patterns and solutions that elude the human mind.
Master’s arrival has shaken China’s human Go players.
“After humanity spent thousands of years improving our tactics, computers tell us that humans are completely wrong,” Mr. Ke, 19, wrote on Chinese social media platform Weibo after his defeat. “I would go as far as to say not a single human has touched the edge of the truth of Go.”
Master’s record—60 wins, 0 losses over seven days ending Wednesday—led virtuoso Go player Gu Li to wonder what other conventional beliefs might be smashed by computers in the future. – Eva Dou and Olivia Geng
Quantum Computers Advancing Much Faster Than Expected
- Development of a quantum computer, if practical, would mark a leap forward in computing capability far greater than that from the abacus to a modern day supercomputer, with performance gains in the billion-fold realm and beyond. – Margaret Rouse
In January 2015 I wrote an article that explored how the rate at which engineering advances were being announced would have a profound and largely unexpected impact on the timeline for the development of Quantum Computers and Quantum Technologies in general.
In the 20 months or so since I wrote that article, a great deal has happened, and even my most optimistic and unrealistic sounding projections have proven to be far too cautious. There have been so many announcements about Quantum Computing and Quantum Technologies that it is sometimes hard to keep with developments.
A startling series of engineering advances and the slow realisation that large corporations have been allocating serious resources to this sector has meant that a quantum computer is no longer seen as belonging on the pages of a science fiction novel.
With the benefit of hindsight I still think the single most important major seismic shift in the sector in the recent past occurred when Google took the initiative with investing in, and backing the John Martinis’ team in 2014.
A direct result of that move and the enormous investment that has been put behind their effort was the disclosure that Google believe they will achieve “quantum supremacy” within a year. The best analysis of Google’s amazing journey thus far is revealed (in my view) in this New Scientist article.
When quantum computers emerge into common usage (and it is now only a question of when, not if), the machines will benefit from developments in quantum mechanics that span the post second world war period.
Despite this, the vast majority of us are blissfully unaware of these developments that have been described as having an influence on human kind that will ultimately rival that of the industrial revolution. Perhaps Arkwright’s machine and Stephenson’s engine were equally remote from people’s everyday lives when they were first unveiled.
This is an exciting time, to say the least, for anyone with an interest in the sector from a commercial or academic standpoint. For those of us who have been involved in the sector for a while, the past 18 months or so have become a bit of haze. We try to get used to a certain reality, and another set of circumstances then becomes available. – Ilyas Khan
Life Extension: Predicting the Order of Arrival of the First Rejuvenation Therapies
The first rejuvenation therapies to work well enough to merit the name will be based on the SENS vision: that aging is at root caused by a few classes of accumulated cell and tissue damage, and biotechnologies that either repair that damage or render it irrelevant will as a result produce rejuvenation.
Until very recently, no medical technology could achieve this goal, and few research groups were even aiming for that outcome.
We are in the midst of a grand transition, however, in which the research and development community is finally turning its attention to the causes of aging, understanding that this is the only way to effectively treat and cure age-related disease.
The therapies of the future will be very different from the therapies of the past. The full rejuvenation toolkit of the next few decades will consist of a range of different treatments, each targeting a different type of molecular damage in cells and tissues.
Below is the likely order of arrival of some of these therapies, based on what is presently going on in research, funding, and for-profit development.
This is an update to a similar post written four years ago, now become somewhat dated given recent advances in the field. Circumstances change, and considerable progress has been made in some lines of research and development.
1) Clearance of Senescent Cells
The most likely therapy to arrive first.
2) Immune System Destruction and Restoration
There are a number of approaches very close to practical realization
3) Clearance of the First Few Types of Amyloid
These types of rejuvenation therapy already exist in the sense of prototypes and trial treatments. Likely to soon be available via medical tourism.
4) Clearance of Glucosepane Cross-Links
Four years ago, the situation for glucosepane clearance looked pretty bleak. Now the road is open to anyone who wants to try their hand at drug discovery. That is now underway in the Spiegel Lab, among others, and I’d hope to see the first potential drug candidates emerge at some point in the next couple of years.
5) Thymic Rejuvenation to Increase the Supply of Immune Cells
This is one of a number of regenerative approaches that is on the verge, just waiting for someone to start a company or join the final two dots together and get moving.
6) Mitochondrial Repair
Halfway there is probably a target reached by 2020 or so at the present pace.
7) A Robust Cure for Cancer
We’ve all been educated to think of cancer as the greatest challenge for medical science, the problem to be solved last of all.
Nonetheless, a more rapid arrival of a generally applicable cure for cancer looks to be the likely course of events, as the basis for a treatment that can in principle put a halt to all cancer at all stages of development is currently in the earliest stages of development.
8) Reversing Stem Cell Aging
This seems at the present time like a long-term prospect, despite the high levels of funding for this line of medical research and development.
9) Clearance of Other Amyloids, Aggregates, and Sundry Lysosomal Garbage
There is a huge amount of work to accomplish because there are many targets to address, and with few exceptions, such as amyloid-β, it is unclear which of the targets are the most important.
They will all have to be addressed, in some order, but there are only so many researchers and only so much funding.
Therapies for the Clearance of Senescent Cells are Imminent
It didn’t take much of a crystal ball four years ago to put senescent cell clearance in first place, the most likely therapy to arrive first.
All of the pieces of the puzzle were largely in place at that time: the demonstration of benefits in mice; potential means of clearance; interested research groups. Only comparatively minor details needed filling in.
Four years later no crystal ball is required at all, given that Everon Biosciences, Oisin Biotechnologies, SIWA Therapeutics, and UNITY Biotechnology are all forging ahead with various different approaches to the selective destruction of senescent cells.
No doubt many groups within established Big Pharma entities are also taking a stab at this, more quietly, and with less press attention. UNITY Biotechnology has raised more than $100 million to date, demonstrating that there is broad enthusiasm for this approach to the treatment of aging and age-related disease.
With the additional attention and funding for this field, more methods of selective cell destruction have been established, and there is now a greater and more detailed understanding of the ways in which senescent cells cause harm, contributing to the aging process.
Senolytic drugs that induce apoptosis have been discovered; senescent cells are primed to enter the programmed cell death process of apoptosis, and so a small nudge to all cells via a drug treatment kills many senescent cells but very few normal cells.
Researchers have established that senescent cells exist in the immune system, and may be important in immune aging. Similarly, the immune cells involved in the progression of atherosclerosis are also senescent, and removing them slows the progression of that condition.
Other research has shown that removing senescent cells from the lungs restores lost tissue elasticity and improves lung function.
Beyond these specific details, senescent cells clearly contribute to chronic inflammation in aging, and that drives the progression of near all common age-related conditions. The less inflammation the better.
These effects are caused by the signals secreted by senescent cells: that their harm is based on signaling explains how a small number of these cells, perhaps 1% by number in an aged organ, can cause such widespread havoc. – Reason, Predicting the Order of Arrival of the First Rejuvenation Therapies
Aubrey de Grey’s SENS Approach Sees Growing Vindication After Years of Hostility
Aubrey de Grey published a reasonable roadmap 10+ years ago (Escape Velocity: Why the Prospect of Extreme Human Life Extension Matters Now). Life extension also like Bitcoin in that those who don’t understand the tech tend to be most hostile.
De Grey was out there early & taking the hits, with concrete proposals. Respect due for moving the conversation.
It is reasonable to say that 10 or 11 years ago Aubrey de Grey was seen as being an outsider and on the fringe but his theories have become more mainstream.
In fact the evidence points strongly to him having been very much on the right track from the start.
A typical example is the removal of senescent cells which is one of the cornerstones of the SENS theory see
I have followed Aubrey de Grey among others in this field pretty much since the start but Aubrey’s role was crucial because he has raised the profile of anti aging research.
I am sure we will look back in 30 years and say “that de Grey guy was right” I also believe there will never be a single magic pill that cures aging but there doesn’t need to be because the incremental gains year on year will mean that many alive now will ride the wave because their life expectancy will be increasing faster than 12 months per year.
Once that stage is reached we won’t have actually cured aging but the result will be essentially the same because each year our appointment with the Grim Reaper will be moving further and further away rather than edging ever closer.
I share Aubrey’s opinion that aging is essentially no different to any other disease and like all diseases is ultimately treatable given the resources. We cannot afford to sit back and accept it. Everyone in history has lived and died but it is a mistake to view aging as a fact of life set in stone when science has progressed to the level where we have a pretty good chance of bringing under a decisive level of clinical control within 25 years or maybe less.
Personally I donate to the SENS Foundation see Johnty Andersenwhich I think is the best route to assist in bringing the date closer. –
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