Tuesday 8th April 2014
The Turing Test
Maybe the mistake we were making about the Turing Test is not realizing it would happen piecemeal. – Paul Graham, Y Combinator
Monday 16th June 2014
Computer Program Passes the Turing Test?
I think this is premature. I am disappointed that Professor Warwick, with whom I agree on many things, would make this statement.
In my 2004 book The Singularity Is Near, I anticipated that there would be premature announcements of this kind.
I chatted with the chatbot Eugene Goostman, and was not impressed. Eugene does not keep track of the conversation, repeats himself word for word, and often responds with typical chatbot non sequiturs.
In my 1989 book The Age of Intelligent Machines, I predicted that the milestone of a computer passing the Turing test would occur in the first half of the 21st century. I specified the 2029 date in my 1999 book The Age of Spiritual Machines. After that book was published, we had a conference at Stanford University and the consensus of AI experts at that time was that it would happen in hundreds of years, if ever.
n 2006 we had a conference called “AI at 50” at Dartmouth College, celebrating the 50th anniversary of the 1956 Dartmouth conference that gave artificial intelligence its name. We had instant polling devices and the consensus at that time, among AI experts, was 25 to 50 years. Today, my prediction appears to be median view. So, I am gratified that a growing group of people now think that I am being too conservative – Ray Kurzweil
Thursday 5th March 2015
By the 2020s, most diseases will go away as nanobots become smarter than current medical technology. Normal human eating can be replaced by nanosystems. The Turing test begins to be passable. Self-driving cars begin to take over the roads, and people won’t be allowed to drive on highways – Ray Kurzweil
Sunday 13th March 2016
Anticipated Top AI Breakthroughs: 2016 – 2018
At A360 this year, my expert on AI was Stephen Gold, the CMO and VP of Business Development and Partner Programs at IBM Watson.
AI Progress of late is furious — an R&D arms race is underway among the world’s top technology giants.
Soon AI will become the most important human collaboration tool ever created, amplifying our abilities and providing a simple user interface to all exponential technologies. Ultimately, it’s helping us speed toward a world of abundance.
The implications of true AI are staggering,
“It’s amazing,” said Gold. “For 50 years, we’ve ideated about this idea of artificial intelligence. But it’s only been in the last few years that we’ve seen a fundamental transformation in this technology.”
Here are Gold’s predictions for the most exciting, disruptive developments coming in AI in the next three years. As entrepreneurs and investors, these are the areas you should be focusing on, as the business opportunities are tremendous.
1 – Next-gen A.I. systems will beat the Turing Test
Alan Turing created the Turing Test over half a century ago as a way to determine a machine’s ability to exhibit intelligent behavior indistinguishable from that of a human.
Loosely, if an artificial system passed the Turing Test, it could be considered “AI.”
Gold believes, “that for all practical purposes, these systems will pass the Turing Test” in the next three-year period.
Perhaps more importantly, if it does, this event will accelerate the conversation about the proper use of these technologies and their applications.
2 – Leverage ALL health data (genomic, phenotypic, social) to redefine the practice of medicine.
“I think AI’s effect on healthcare will be far more pervasive and far quicker than anyone anticipates,” says Gold. “Even today, AI/machine learning is being used in oncology to identify optimal treatment patterns.”
But it goes far beyond this. AI is being used to match clinical trials with patients, drive robotic surgeons, read radiological findings and analyze genomic sequences.
3 – AI will be woven into the very fabric of our lives — physically and virtually.
Ultimately, during the AI revolution taking place in the next three years, AIs will be integrated into everything around us, combining sensors and networks and making all systems “smart.”
AIs will push forward the ideas of transparency, of seamless interaction with devices and information, making everything personalized and easy to use. We’ll be able to harness that sensor data and put it into an actionable form, at the moment when we need to make a decision.